USD/MXN Exchange Rate Today — Live Chart and Analysis

Analysis

The peso was one of the star performers in 2025, gaining roughly 23% against the dollar as USD/MXN fell from around 20.50 to 17.80. High Mexican interest rates pulled in carry trade flows, the dollar weakened broadly, and nearshoring investment into Mexico kept FDI strong. Banxico cut rates 300bp across the year (from 10% to 7%), but the roughly 325bp advantage over the Fed funds rate kept the carry trade attractive throughout. In Q1 2026, Banxico cut again - a further 25bp to 6.75%, in a split decision that reflected the tension between slowing growth and re-accelerating inflation at 4.63% (above the 3% target). As the rate differential narrows with further cuts, MXN's carry appeal weakens. The biggest tail risk is still US trade policy: 25% tariffs imposed in early 2025 are a direct threat to an economy where the US buys 80% of exports, and USMCA renegotiation in 2026 adds another layer of uncertainty. Support sits near 17.50–17.80; a sustained break above 19.00 would signal the trend has turned.