YPF SA (YPF) Stock Price Today — Live Chart and Analysis

YPF's price is primarily driven by Vaca Muerta production growth, global crude oil prices, and Argentine economic conditions. In 2025, the stock gained around 57% year-over-year, fueled by record shale oil output (+35% YoY) and a record $5.0 billion EBITDA. On the downside, falling Brent prices, Argentine peso devaluation, and political risk from state ownership can weigh on the ADR price significantly.

The main drivers are Brent crude oil prices, Vaca Muerta production volumes and operational costs, Argentine macroeconomic conditions (inflation, currency, and sovereign risk), government energy policy, and the pace of infrastructure development for oil exports. Since the Argentine state holds a majority stake, political decisions on energy pricing and investment strategy also have direct impact on the company's strategy and profitability.

YPF offers compelling exposure to Vaca Muerta, one of the world's largest shale formations with a breakeven around $40–45 per barrel—well below current Brent prices. The company delivered record EBITDA of $5.0 billion in 2025 with shale reserves growing 32%. However, YPF carries significant Argentina-specific risks: currency volatility, sovereign risk, and a history of government intervention including the 2012 nationalization. Investors weigh the world-class asset base against the country risk.

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